Britons Say Trump Greater Threat than Terrorists and Want EU Deal that Brings Up to £2.6bn in Fiscal Benefit
A new Good Growth Foundation Report has found that Trump 2.0 and Putin’s war in Ukraine are pushing Britons, including Reform-leaners, towards the EU. Britons are more likely to view Donald Trump as the biggest threat to UK interest than terrorist organisations (24% and 22% respectively), second only to Russia (34%).
The Good Growth Foundation is calling for a politically popular relationship to address the cost of living crisis, deliver security and add up to £2.6 billion in fiscal benefit.
According to the Good Growth Foundation report, 67% of Labour 2024 and 60% of Labour-Leave voters back joining forces with the EU against unpredictable partners in a forced choice against doubling down on the special relationship with America.
Nearly three-quarters of Labour-Reform switchers want to either rejoin (35%) or have a closer relationship with the EU but not rejoin (39%), greater than Britons overall (32% want to rejoin; 34% want a closer relationship but not to rejoin). 75% of Labour-Reform switchers support “some” or “a lot” of cooperation on trade and the economy, and 73% on defence and security.
Britons say that any deal with the EU must lower the cost of living. The public’s most frequently chosen top 3 priorities are decreasing energy prices (51%), food prices (48%), and the cost of goods and services (46%).
Amongst those who want a closer relationship, there are clear red lines for any deal with the EU, beyond accepting full EU membership:
38% do not want EU boats and fishing to gain greater access to UK waters (lower among Labour-Reform Switchers at just 31%, and Labour Leave voters at 30%)
34% want to restrict access to public services and benefits for EU citizens (33% of Labour-Reform Switchers, and 29% of Labour Leave voters)
31% want to prevent European Court of Justice oversight of a EU-UK deal (28% of Labour-Reform Switchers, and 24% of Labour 24 voters)
The Good Growth Foundation is proposing policy solutions that honour the public’s red lines and alleviate fears in areas like immigration - as deep concern that closer economic ties with the EU will lead to greater immigration persists. Britons and Labour’s electoral coalition think legal and illegal migration worsened since Brexit (net -23% say legal migration worsened; -42% say illegal migration worsened). Two-thirds of Britons, Labour 24, Lab- Reform, and Lab-Leave voters believe ‘legal migration is not selective enough, and is letting too many people in’.
GGF proposals include:
Introduce a capped Youth Mobility Scheme to generate up to £1bn in annual fiscal benefit
Implement a capped scheme for 18–30-year-olds, with no access to public funds, visa fees, healthcare surcharges and a three-year limit, with the option to implement a cost of living surcharge. In some scenarios students could be included in the scheme and gain home tuition fee access.
The scheme addresses migration concerns (two-thirds think migrants cost more than they contribute) while boosting the economy.
A 100,000-cap scheme (students excluded) yields up to £1.03bn in annual fiscal benefit, boosting the CHX headroom and providing funds which we recommend are used for cost-of-living measures like the Household Support Fund.
Unify Carbon Markets to take up to £1.6 billion off household bills
Link the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) with the EU ETS, raising £700m–£1.6bn annually for the Treasury. Revenue can fund:
Option 1: £25–£56 bill reductions for all 28.4 million households.
Option 2: Expand Warm Homes Discount, increasing payments by £115–£262 for 6.1 million eligible households.
Join the EU electricity market via regulatory alignment, saving £120m–£370m yearly by eliminating trading inefficiencies.
Avoid ECJ Jurisdiction via an alternative panel
Establish an independent arbitration panel for UK-EU disputes (like in agri-food, energy, defence), with a limited ECJ reference procedure for EU law interpretation, as in the EU-Switzerland agreement (2024).
This avoids direct ECJ oversight (a red line with 31% of voters), unlike the Windsor Framework, while enabling cooperation on trade and security. It also supports veterinary agreements and carbon market alignment, reducing trade frictions.
Secure a formal defence and security pact and joint-procurement with the EU
Leverage the public’s appetite for ‘good relationships with good people’ and establish a formal pact to gain access to €150bn Security Action for Europe (SAFE) fund to boost the defence industry and make military build up more affordable.
Work closely with Europe on specific capabilities to credibly counter the threat from Russia and support Ukraine.
Praful Nargund, Good Growth Foundation Director, said:
"A closer relationship with Europe must answer the crisis of insecurity, cutting bills and offering safety amidst tumultuous global politics. Faced with the threat that Trump and Putin pose to UK interests, the public is looking again to Europe as a vital partner in protecting Britain’s security, economy and future.
“But support remains fragile, easily lost if voters feel their core concerns are dismissed, especially on immigration. The issues that underpinned Brexit - control, sovereignty, fairness - haven’t gone away. Our proposals meet people where they are: they respect their red lines while offering a pragmatic, workable path to rebuild cooperation without reigniting division. It is a plan that can strengthen the UK’s place in the world while taking on the cost of living - with the potential to cut bills and ease pressure on families across the country.”
In the report foreword, Alastair Campbell, Author and former 10 Downing Street Director of Communications & Strategy, said:
"This report details how to navigate public attitudes, and develop messaging and policy to take that first step to a closer relationship with the European Union. Because we must get a closer relationship. Britain’s future is at stake - and this time, we have to get it right."
Jake Richards MP said:
“The Brexit paradigm is now history, and it's time for a patriotic approach that builds our country's resilience. As the Good Growth Foundation lays out, if we address the public's concerns head on, the Government can achieve a better and deeper relationship with our European partners. That means improved living standards, economic protection and a stronger, more secure Britain.”
Allie Rennison, Director SEC Newgate, former government policy adviser on business and trade said:
“This is a report which has done the hard work of talking to different stakeholder constituencies and looked ahead to possible compromise landing zones to get an agreement that is politically tenable on all sides.”
