Good Growth Tracker | Good Growth Foundation

Latest ONS releases to 20 October 2026

Prototype

Unemployment has eased back below the OBR's forecast

Unemployment rate, aged 16 and over

Source: ONS Labour Market Statistics (October 2026), OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook (March 2026). Series MGSX.

Job vacancies have been falling for four years

UK vacancies, thousands

Source: ONS Vacancy Survey (October 2026). Series AP2Y. Excludes agriculture, forestry and fishing.

There are 2.4 people looking for work for every vacancy

Unemployed people per vacancy

Since 2015, against the balanced range

Notes: Unemployed people (MGSC) divided by vacancies (AP2Y), three-month averages.
Source: ONS Labour market statistics (October 2026).

Budget 2025What the November Budget does

Figures from the OBR Economic and fiscal outlook, November 2025

Budget 2025

What the November Budget does for growth, the public finances and incomes

Good Growth Score

What the Budget does to the link between growth and living standards

Notes: Growth per person in the final year of each forecast, in fiscal years (2030-31 for November 2025). Income is real household disposable income (RHDI) per person. The Good Growth Score is income growth divided by GDP growth; 100% means incomes keep pace with the economy. Top: change in the score caused by the Budget's measures; October 2024 is the only earlier fiscal event that publishes the before-measures figures needed. Middle: change in final-year growth caused by the measures, in percentage points. Bottom: the score after each Budget and Autumn Statement (Spring Statements excluded). Hover to see each.
Source: GGF calculations using OBR economy tables (Table 1.5) for each Budget, March 2017 to November 2025. Before measures: RHDI from Chart 2.16 (November 2025) and Chart 2.14 (October 2024), with GDP derived from the OBR's policy impact on real GDP (Chart 3.3; October 2024 Chart A).

Fiscal space before Budget measures, £bn

Notes: Grey needles are previous Budgets and Autumn Statements; hover over a needle to see it. Spring Statements are excluded. Fiscal space is measured against the main fiscal rule in force at each event.
Source: OBR fiscal targets tables in each EFO, March 2020 (Table 4.6) to November 2025 (Table 7.1).

Fiscal space before Budget measures, by Chancellor

Fiscal space before Budget measures, £bn

Notes: Where two rules applied, the smaller margin is shown. Earlier events used a structural deficit rule and are not comparable. March 2021 has no usable pre-measures margin. Budgets and Autumn Statements only; Spring Statements are excluded.
Source: OBR fiscal targets tables in each EFO, from March 2020 (Table 4.6) to November 2025 (Table 7.1).

What each Budget did to fiscal space

Fiscal space before and after Budget measures, £bn

Notes: Budget effect is the after figure minus the before figure. Hover over a pair to see the rule used.
Source: GGF calculations using OBR fiscal targets tables, March 2020 to November 2025 EFOs.

Size of fiscal policy packages, £bn a year in today’s terms

Notes: Grey needles are previous Budgets and Autumn Statements since June 2010; hover over a needle to see it. Spring Statements, spending reviews and the July 2020 Summer Economic Update are excluded. Each package is the OBR's average effect over five years as a share of GDP, converted to £ using 2025-26 nominal GDP of £3,094bn so that events are comparable. Money raised is shown as positive and money spent as negative.
Source: GGF calculations using OBR EFO November 2025, Chart 3.1 and Economy Table 1.4.

Notes: Growth in real household disposable income per person in the final year of each forecast. Grey marks are previous Budgets and Autumn Statements since March 2017; hover over a mark to see it. Spring Statements are excluded.
Source: GGF calculations using OBR economy tables (Table 1.5) for each Budget and Autumn Statement, March 2017 to November 2025.

Rising prices continue to hold back growth in income per person

Real household disposable income per person

Source: OBR EFO November 2025, Chart 2.16 (right-hand panel).

How long would you need to work to afford:

Notes: NEF and Best for Britain Attainability Index rolled forward to 2030-31, when the longer tax threshold freeze has taken effect, using OBR forecasts. A full-time single worker renting a one-bed home in the South-east, using pay left after tax and essentials. 2025 prices; a week is 37.5 hours.
GGF calculations using NEF and Best for Britain, ONS ASHE, the Living Wage Foundation and the OBR.

Real household disposable income per person

After Budget measuresBefore Budget measures

Notes: Shading shows the gap between the forecasts before and after Budget measures, green where the Budget raises income and orange where it lowers it.
Source: OBR EFO November 2025, Chart 2.16 (left-hand panel).

Saving rate, unadjusted

November 2025 forecastMarch 2025 forecast

Notes: Unadjusted saving rate. The OBR also publishes a lower rate adjusted for pension equity changes, not shown here.
Source: OBR EFO November 2025, Chart 2.17.

Inflation in 2026 is lower after Budget measures than before them

CPI inflation

After Budget measuresBefore Budget measuresRange of uncertainty

Notes: Bands run from the 10th to the 90th percentile in steps of 10.
Source: OBR EFO November 2025, Charts 1.2 and 2.12.

Unemployment has eased back below the OBR's forecast

Job vacancies have been falling for four years

There are 2.4 people looking for work for every vacancy

Since 2015, against the balanced range

Real wages are still below their 2008 level

Average real pay growth a year

Food prices are rising faster than prices overall

The economy is growing at about 1% a year, as it has since 2008

Average growth a year

Output per worker has barely grown since 2008

Average growth a year

Housebuilding starts are recovering, but remain well below their 2023 peak

Good growth by area

Strongest

Weakest

Budget 2025

Good Growth Score

Fiscal space before Budget measures, by Chancellor

What each Budget did to fiscal space

The Budget gives GDP a small, short-lived lift

Exports are now forecast to be stronger than in March

Imports are now forecast to be stronger than in March

Business investment is now forecast to be higher than in March

Rising prices continue to hold back growth in income per person

How long would you need to work to afford:

Inflation in 2026 is lower after Budget measures than before them