Black and white diagonal striped pattern with some geometric shapes.

August 2025

Light at the End of the Tunnel

Reopening Ashford International to bring good growth to left behind towns

Foreword

Sojan Joseph, MP for Ashford

Helena Dollimore, MP for Hastings & Rye

Polly Billington, MP for East Thanet

Tony Vaughan, MP for Folkestone & Hythe

Mike Tapp, MP for Dover & Deal


To many, Kent and Sussex are seen as places of prosperity, shaped by their proximity to London. Yet those of us from here understand the more complex reality: deep inequalities between towns, persistent deprivation along the coast and communities that feel overlooked and disconnected.

Ashford International sits at the heart of this story. When it first opened as a Eurostar hub in the 1990s, it symbolised opportunity and connection - a gateway between Britain and Europe that carried the promise of new investment, thriving tourism and stronger ties to our neighbours. But since the suspension of international services in 2020, its closure has instead come to symbolise decline, underinvestment and neglect, leaving tens of millions of taxpayer money sitting idle. 

For our constituents, this is not an abstract issue. Local businesses, families and communities have felt the loss directly. Missed opportunities, rising costs and longer journey times are compounded by the creeping sense that decisions made elsewhere have left our towns and villages behind. This ultimately aggravates the economic and social factors that have created a breeding ground for populist politics, where disillusionment is exploited by those offering simple slogans in place of real solutions.

That is why this report matters. Ashford International is not just about restoring local train services, but about faith in our region and the people who live here. It demonstrates how targeted investment in transport can be a catalyst for wider regeneration, helping to rebuild pride and prosperity in places that feel cut adrift. And it sets out a vision for how infrastructure can be used not only as a tool for economic growth, but social renewal.

Reinstating international services at Ashford is a clear, tangible step the Government can take to show commitment to the development of towns in the South East. Our communities deserve to be connected - to Europe, to the national economy and to a future that people can believe in.

Executive Summary

Ashford International was once a proud gateway to Europe. Since international services were suspended in 2020, it has become a symbol of decline - leaving millions in taxpayer investment unused and communities across Kent and Sussex feeling cut off and forgotten.

Reopening the station is about far more than trains. It is a test of whether the Government is serious about backing coastal towns, restoring growth in the South East and tackling the rise of populism in a region where Reform UK is a credible threat. Reinstating international services would turn a ghost station into a driver of good growth, pride and opportunity. It is a visible, economically beneficial step to show that communities on the South East coast are not forgotten - and that the Government is ready to back them.

Why it matters

  • Economic waste: £80 million of infrastructure investment has been rendered useless; businesses across the region have lost vital footfall and trade.

  • Deep inequality: Kent and East Sussex contain some of the most deprived communities in the UK, with child poverty and unemployment concentrated along the coast.

  • Political salience: Labour MPs in the South East are campaigning for the station’s reopening, Reform-led Kent County Council has publicly called for it and there is strong public support across the region.

What's at stake

  • Economic growth: Reopening could inject £534 million a year into the visitor economy - up to £2.7 billion over five years.

  • Connectivity: Return journey times to Brussels would fall from almost six hours to just over three, whilst those to Paris would fall by over 2 hours.

  • Confidence: A clear signal that the Government is prepared to invest in regions that feel left behind.

Recommendations

  1. Government signalling: The Government should demonstrate clear public commitment to the reopening of international services at Ashford International at a ministerial level.

  2. The Government should favour international operators who commit to running Ashford services when granting access rights and support. Where new operators seek to run services on HS1, the inclusion of Ashford should be taken into account as an important factor in considering government backing.[1]

  3. Reinstate border infrastructure: Prioritise essential, cost-effective upgrades of Ashford International’s border infrastructure, which we recommend be funded from the Growth Mission Fund. The Fund was designed to fast-track projects that support local job creation and “expedite local projects that are important for growth but have been forgotten”, and therefore may be regarded as the natural source of this funding.[2]

[1] In January 2025, the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) forced HS1 to reduce its charges for running services on the line, explicitly to encourage the introduction of new operators. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/06/regulator-forces-hs1-rail-line-to-cut-charges-in-push-to-open-up-route-to-eurostar-rivals

[2] HM Treasury, ‘Chancellor announces record investment to rebuild National Health Service’, June 2025

Beach scene with sand, people walking, and a white building named 'Old Neptune.' Houses and shops line the background, with some people sitting at tables and umbrellas, and a clear sky overhead.
A large, stylized orange dollar sign with a black background.

Introduction

In the shadow of London, the region of the South East has often been held up as a place of affluence. But beneath the surface, many of its communities - especially along the coast - are beginning to bubble with resentment borne from neglect and deprivation. External shocks like  the pandemic and Brexit have only made matters worse, and the subsequent closure of Ashford International has left a full recovery off the table.

Eurostar services to Ashford and Ebbsfleet International were suspended in March 2020. The closure was attributed to the unprecedented impact of the pandemic. But while services to London St Pancras continued regardless, services to Ashford have not resumed. Ashford International laying vacant has caused public outcry and become a symbol of self-defeating, short-termist corporatism at the expense of local economies.

Disconnection and deprivation as felt in the South East has exacerbated the rise of populism. The region has long been fertile ground for Reform UK, but now the party is making real political gains. Reform took control of Kent County Council in May 2025, and there is a good chance that it will be the main opposition in many Kent and Sussex parliamentary seats at the next election.  It is within this context that the resumption of international services at Ashford International can become a beacon of hope, growth and opportunity in a region desperate for a clear signal that the Government is prepared to back its people.

Effective transport infrastructure is a fundamental pillar of a fairer economy, serving not only to facilitate the movement of people and goods, but also as a powerful engine for good growth. It speaks to the freedom of individuals to pursue opportunity and ambition, and is a popular tool for improving lives.

Our foundational report, Mind the Growth Gap, found that transport is a key means through which people felt economic growth. And “an active government, willing to invest in places and people” is seen as the most likely lever to generate growth. Reopening Ashford International as a regional transport hub is a straightforward way the Government can demonstrate its ability to act on these two asks from the public while fostering growth in communities that have felt left behind. It would boost economic growth and serve as a highly visible act of faith in a regional economy, exemplifying how targeted investment in strategic infrastructure can be a cornerstone of the Government’s mission to support tangible good growth and regeneration.  

By leveraging existing infrastructure to restore a critical international link, the Government can articulate a compelling vision for economic rebalancing outside of London, use transport as a potent tool for community revival and capitalise on millions of investment being left to waste - all while  countering  the populist right in one its most targeted regions.

Cliffs of chalk along a coastal landscape with grassy fields and cloudy sky.
The logo for the NBA G League, featuring large blue letters "G" and "L" overlapping.

The Cost of Coastal Deprivation

Ashford is the epicentre of a surprisingly struggling region. Kent and its neighbour East Sussex are often perceived as affluent due to their proximity to London and their overall economic output, but face significant internal economic disparities. This is particularly true for coastal communities, which have increasingly become barometers for overall UK decline.[3]

Kent’s top 20 most deprived areas are located along the coast - a significant geographical concentration of hardship. Thanet consistently ranks as the hardest-hit local authority, followed by Swale. Dover and Folkestone & Hythe also face acute socio-economic challenges.[4] The human impact of this is stark: in 2023/24, 14.8% of children under 16 in Kent (45,882 children) were living in absolute low-income families. This figure is higher than the South East regional average (12.3%) and increases significantly in Kent coastal districts, like Thanet (22.1%) and Dover (19.5%), surpassing the national average.[5]

East Sussex tells a similar story, with some of the most disadvantaged towns in the country. In Hastings, nearly half of all neighbourhoods fall within the bottom 20% nationally on multiple measures of hardship - including two of the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods in the UK. The Sutton Trust Opportunity Index Report also placed Hastings in the bottom ten constituencies for social mobility earlier this year.[6] While Eastbourne and Bexhill are somewhat better off overall, they still contain areas of severe need. Eastbourne has four neighborhoods in the most deprived 10% nationally, and one Bexhill neighbourhood ranks among the bottom 5% in England.[7]

This region and its coast has, however, historically been a magnet for tourism and its benefits. Prior to the pandemic, Kent's visitor economy was substantial, attracting nearly 65 million visitors annually and contributing almost £3.8 billion to the UK’s economy. The sector supported over 77,000 jobs, equivalent to 11% of all employment in Kent.[8] Likewise, East Sussex’s tourism was impressive pre-COVID. Valued at approximately £5 billion in 2019, it attracted 62 million visitors and supported roughly 74,000 jobs.[9]

The pandemic had a devastating impact. 89% of Kent's hospitality and tourism businesses temporarily or indefinitely closed, accounting for 32.6% of all registered job losses.[10] The tourism sector in East Sussex did not fare much better, experiencing an immediate and drastic drop in visitor numbers and revenue. For some, but not all, towns in the region there has been a bounceback, but the hurt still remains. The South East underperformed during the pandemic recovery in terms of inbound tourist visits[11] and effects from the indefinite cut-off from international rail continue to scar an industry desperate to recover. But there remains huge potential for a further boost to tourism tied to Hastings and the surrounding area with the approach of the Bayeaux Tapestry’s UK loan in 2026, which is expected to draw major visitor numbers. Without the much-needed international rail links through Ashford, the region risks losing out on a major opportunity to turn global interest into a local economic revival.

It is unsurprising, given this post-pandemic difficult context, that the region - particularly the coast - has become a hotbed for political discontent and the emergence of the populist right. Crumbling infrastructure has been met with persistent crises: small boats in the channel; Brexit shocks to trade and shipping; rising living costs.

In May’s local elections, Reform UK took control of  Kent County Council.[12] A heartland for Brexit and more recently on the frontline of the small boats crisis, Kent has been an example of where frustrations with the Conservative Party have hardened. In the General Election, Reform came second in Dover & Deal and third in Ashford, Chatham & Aylesford, Sittingbourne & Sheppey and the Weald of Kent.[13] The party has cast itself as insurgent in the region - and across the country.[14] Fresh with this confidence, the new Leader of Kent County Council has already called for the reopening of Ashford International.[15] While ironic, due the closure being partly due to the complications created by Brexit,[16] this makes Ashford more than a local transport issue. It is a test of how national politics responds to the new forces reshaping Britain’s political map.

Reopening Ashford International offers a visible starting point for wider economic regeneration of the region. It would be a concrete and tangible policy through which the Government can demonstrate responsiveness to communities that feel they have seen better days. Labour MPs in the South East are already campaigning for it, recognising both its symbolic weight and practical benefits. Done right, reopening Ashford International could create a political opportunity to turn the tide on disenchantment by the Coast.

A pink double-decker train arriving at a railway platform in the evening, with overhead electrical wires and a digital sign showing temperature and station information.
A lime green recycled arrows icon in a circular shape

Gridlock and Ghosts

The region’s strategic location as a  gateway to Europe and a tourist hotspot is undermined by significant gaps in its transport and connectivity infrastructure - hampering economic performance.

Kent’s main motorways, particularly the M20 and M2, are frequently overwhelmed by high volumes of freight traffic heading to and from the Channel ports. Congestion is made worse by emergency measures like ‘Operation Brock’,[17] which diverts traffic to manage lorry queues but in doing so creates major disruption and delays for local residents, costing the local Kent and Medway economy at least an estimated £1.5 million per day.[18] The fractured rail system only adds to the problem. Its history of underinvestment and subsequent capacity issues mean many journeys into the capital now face frequent cancellation and delay.

In contrast, the opening of Ashford International Station in 1996 heralded a transformative era for international rail travel in Kent, Sussex and South East England, establishing itself as the United Kingdom's second Eurostar station. Its development required considerable public investment, with the station's rebuild alone costing approximately £80 million to facilitate both domestic (toward and from London) and international services.[19] The closure of international services in 2020 provoked significant public outcry. Over 65,000 individuals signed a petition calling for the Eurostar’s return and a business survey conducted by Kent County Council (KCC) received 530 responses, with nearly all participants advocating for the resumption of services.[20]

Today, Ashford International stands as a ghost station, its two platforms unused and its potential unrealised. Residents and businesses alike understand that international services are more than a transport link - they are a lifeline for the region’s economy, connectivity and identity.

Nighttime view of an empty train station platform with tracks, lit by overhead lights, and a modern building with large glass windows overhead.
Large stylized blue number 22 overlapping with stylized blue number 22.

Infrastructure Without Impact

Eurostar's decision to halt services at Ashford and Ebbsfleet was a direct response to the severe decline in passenger numbers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Post-pandemic, it has continued to cite costs, capacity and commercial priorities as causes for delay in reopening.[21] However, Eurostar has also recently announced plans to significantly expand the capacity of its operations at London St. Pancras, from 19 million to 30 million by 2030.[22]

This is a massive waste and the socio-economic impact of service withdrawal has been substantial. Ashford International is a major asset - built with taxpayer money - that sits unused. The cessation of services renders over £80 million of infrastructure investment in Ashford[23] idle and underutilises its role as a regional hub, connecting towns throughout Kent and Sussex together.[24]

The corresponding economic downturn in Ashford and the wider region has been palpable. The loss has severely impacted local hospitality, hotel and taxi industries. Businesses that rely on international connections  have reported critical losses, while local businesses continue to struggle with footfall. A business survey commissioned by Kent County Council found 99% of respondents wanted the return of services.[25] This points to a deeper impact: the erosion of competitiveness for a region that was once a gateway to the continent. The lack of easy international access not only deters new foreign direct investment, but also hinders the growth and retention of existing businesses and their skilled workforce. 

For residents and businesses alike, the increased burden of travel has been pronounced:

  • Travelling to Brussels via London St. Pancras adds at least 80 minutes each way, totalling almost 3 hours for a one-way journey from Ashford to Brussels, up from just over 90 minutes pre-2020.

  • Travelling to Paris has also increased in length, with the need to travel via London St. Pancras adding over an hour each way. As a result, one-way trips have increased from 1 hour 50 minutes to over 3 hours.[26]

  • Costs have significantly increased  for many travellers with a round trip from Ashford to Brussels costing £200-£280, up from £120-£180.[27]

However, before the pandemic, Eurostar's presence at Ashford underpinned much more than convenience -  it drove tourism, trade and cross-border business, anchoring the South East as a gateway to Europe. High Speed 1 (HS1) generated £427 million in economic benefits annually across the UK and continental Europe, supporting 4,600 jobs.[28] The closure of Ashford to international services consequently represents not just the disappearance of trains, but the reversal of a long-standing growth engine. For communities that had been promised prosperity from HS1, this feels like a broken contract. The infrastructure still exists but no longer serves them. Withdrawal of these services represents a direct reversal of the gains previously created and the disappearance of future prosperity.

All together, the connectivity challenge has led to an increasingly isolated region - and it is little wonder why Reform have found fertile ground in a county let down by failing infrastructure and routine underinvestment.

[21] BBC, Will the Eurostar ever stop in Kent again?, March 2025

[22] Expansion of London’s Iconic St. Pancras Station, London St. Pancras Highspeed, 2025

[23] Ashford Borough Council, ‘5 years is too long without Eurostar services say local leaders’, March 2025

[24] National Rail Network Map, June 2024

[25] Ashford Borough Council, ‘Business leaders join over 50,000 residents in calling for Eurostar services to return’, April 2024

[26] The journey times for Ashford to Paris and Brussels via St Pancras are conservative estimates, as they do not account for the additional time required changing trains at St Pancras.

[27] Returning international rail services to Kent, Bring Back Euro Trains & Enroute, January 2025 as cited in City AM, ‘Eurostar: calls grow for Kent reopening as passenger costs surge’, January 2025

[28] The Economic Impact of HS1, Steer, 2020

Multiple railroad tracks with overhead lighting, green trees on the side, and a partly cloudy sky during sunset.
A large, stylized orange number 2 with sharp edges and geometric design.

Millions Left Waiting: The economic benefit of reopening

Ashford is already a key transport hub, with 3.51 million passenger entries and exits in 2023/24[29] - but passenger numbers were much higher pre-pandemic, before international services ceased. [30] 

In the very least, it is likely that reinstating Ashford International services would return passenger numbers to their levels immediately pre-Covid, adding 197,000 more visitors from Europe annually. This is a conservative estimate, given pre-Covid services were already depleted from their peak levels. It is therefore reasonable to expect that with Ashford’s international services restored to their former frequency of 15 return trips daily, 493,000 more visitors could come into the South East each year. Given the performance of recent upgrades to UK rail projects, it is likely that actual passenger numbers will surpass expectations, offering more potential for growth if service frequency increases.

The impact on tourism would be substantial. International visitors to the South East spent £2.3 billion in 2022, averaging £639 per visitor. The conservative scenario, in which Ashford International sees passenger numbers return to their levels immediately pre-pandemic, suggests that £126 million in additional visitor spending each year could be injected into the economy.
The optimistic scenario, with train frequency returned to its former peak, could result in £315 million of additional visitor spending each year.

This additional spending would be felt across every part of the South East’s visitor economy. Our conservative estimate of £126 million annual boost in visitor spending suggests £214 million in Gross Value Added (GVA) to the economy - £1.07 billion added to the economy over five years. In our optimistic estimate of £315 million, this equates to £534 million GVA, or £2.7 billion over 5 years.

These figures are deliberately conservative, only accounting for direct tourist spend and not including wider knock-on effects for the regional economy (such as business investment, job creation or productivity gains).

Conservative Forecast

  • 197,000 new visitors (based on 2019 visitor numbers)

  • £126.10  million visitor spending

  • £213.56 million GVA per year

  • £1.068 billion GVA over five years

Optimistic Forecast

  • 493,000 new visitors (based on a return to Ashford’s peak train frequency)

  • £315.259 million visitor spending

  • £533.93 million GVA per year

  • £2.670 billion GVA over five years

Please see the appendix for full calculations and sources.


Comparative Services

  • Levenmouth Rail Link (Scotland): opened in June 2024 after 55 years without rail, this line recorded around 300,000 passenger journeys in its first year, rejoining isolated communities to the network.[31] Local ScotRail timetables had to add more services due to strong demand.[32] The reopened line is credited with reconnecting communities and catalysing growth in Fife.[33]

  • Northumberland Line (England): since passenger trains returned in Dec 2024 on this formerly freight-only route, over 500,000 journeys have been made in under eight months.[34] This milestone of half a million trips between Newcastle and Ashington was achieved far sooner than anticipated. The line’s popularity “reflects how important the line is for many people” and has “opened up a whole new economic corridor” according to the county council leader.[35] To meet demand, operators have already lengthened trains on some services.[36] Such usage greatly exceeds early forecasts and highlights the scale of latent demand unleashed by the new connection.

  • Elizabeth Line (Crossrail, London): this high-frequency urban line opened in 2022 and has dramatically outpaced its ridership projections. Annual passenger numbers are already above levels originally expected by 2030, with about 150 million journeys in the first full year and 210 million journeys in 2023/24 alone.[37] That represents a >50% year-on-year increase as the line ramped up service. By 2024, the Elizabeth Line was carrying ~600,000 journeys on a typical weekday.[38] It reached 350 million total trips within two years of opening.[39] This uptake shows that actual demand can far exceed business-case forecasts when a step-change in connectivity is delivered. Notably, Crossrail’s success has been a “game-changer” - it added an estimated £42 billion to the UK economy in its first two years by transforming travel across London and stimulating development.[40]

  • New Local Stations (England & Scotland) - smaller station projects have also surpassed expectations: for example, Reading Green Park, a station opened in May 2023, saw nearly 160,000 entries/exits in its first year, exceeding forecast demand.[41] This station, serving a business park and football stadium, quickly hit its passenger target thanks to combined commuter and event travel - “a massive hit” beyond initial estimates. In Scotland, the new East Linton station (opened Dec 2023) welcomed 87,000 passengers in its first 12 months, proving very popular in a small town and outpacing projected growth. [42] These cases show that providing new rail access can induce strong ridership even in smaller markets.

  • Thanet Parkway (Kent) - even where early usage was lower than hoped, ridership is rapidly growing. This new parkway station opened mid-2023 and by six months in it had a 40% monthly passenger increase.[43] An average of ~260 passengers used it daily in December 2023 and rising.[44] Southeastern expects continued growth as travellers discover the service. The lesson from this is that demand often builds over time - and can ultimately reach or exceed targets with the right service levels and connectivity.

These examples suggest that if international services returned to Ashford, passenger numbers could climb well above initial expectations. New connectivity tends to unlock suppressed demand: travellers who may not currently use Ashford International would travel to the station for direct continental trips, just as other communities embraced new rail links. Many of these projects saw actual usage 20–50+% above forecasts within the first year or two. It’s reasonable to expect Ashford International’s usage would similarly exceed forecasts: especially given the station’s strategic location on High Speed 1 and its large catchment in Kent/East Sussex.

[31] Railnews, ‘Reopened Levenmouth line carried 300,000 in first year’, June 2025

[32] Fife Council, ‘Levenmouth Rail Link: One Year On’, June 2025

[33] Ibid.

[34] Rail, ‘Delay to next Northumberland Line stations explained as 500,000 journeys are made on route’, Aug 2025

[35] Ibid.

[36] Ibid.

[37] Rail Advent, ‘Passenger numbers on the Elizabeth Line far exceed expectations’, May 2024

[38] UK Property Forums, ‘Elizabeth Line exceeds all expectations to break even by 2024’, Feb 2023

[39] Rail Advent, ‘Passenger numbers on the Elizabeth Line far exceed expectations’, May 2024

[40] Ibid.

[41] Thames Valley Chamber of Commerce Group, ‘Reading Green Park station hits goal of 160,000 passengers’, May 2024

[42] Network Rail, ‘East Linton station marks one year of operation’, Dec 2024

[43] BBC, ‘Thanet Parkway: Passenger numbers up 40% at new station’, Jan 2024

[44] Ibid.


But how much would it cost?

Reopening Ashford International to Eurostar services would require both a one-off capital investment and ongoing operational expenditure to ensure smooth international travel under the EU’s new Entry/Exit System (EES) and restore vital connectivity for Kent and the wider South East.

We estimate capital investment to be £2 million[45] to £3.5 million[46]. Alongside this, there would be ongoing annual running costs of Border Force staffing ranging from £1.15 million to £1.4 million[47]. In the case of additional operational and maintenance costs, these would be met by the operator.

It is worth noting that running costs are likely to decrease in the medium term, as a result of two forecasted changes. These could feasibly reduce running costs by £0.5 million.

  1. Frontex expects to roll out its EES pre-registration app. This is an app for travel document data, a facial image record and the Schengen conditions of entry questionnaire.[48] Eurostar estimates that the number of EES kiosks needed at St Pancras could be reduced by 40% as travellers become more familiar with the app.[49]

  2. The introduction of ETIAS electronic travel authorisation, scheduled to be introduced in late 2026, will also reduce the number of manual border checks required.[50]

These figures represent a modest investment compared to the potential economic benefits of reopening, ensuring international connectivity for Kent and the wider South East while complying with standard border requirements.


International Rail Abroad

Compelling comparative insights from Europe show high-speed rail can act as a catalyst for wider economic development. The transformation of Lille, driven by investment in the Gare de Lille Europe station, highlights how international rail links can revive post-industrial regions and stimulate economic growth.[51]  The ongoing Rail Baltica project offers another example. Projected to deliver €16.2 billion in socio-economic benefits, create 13,000 construction jobs and markably shift freight from road to rail, it is set to foster business, trade and tourism across Northeastern Europe.[52]

With High Speed 1 already in place and its strategic location at the heart of UK-Europe connectivity, Kent is uniquely placed to replicate these successes. Reopening Ashford International could help turn a struggling region into a dynamic international hub - a genuine example of good growth that people can see and feel.

View of Big Ben and the Palace of Westminster in London on a rainy day, with pedestrians holding umbrellas and a red double-decker bus on the street.
A large, stylized teal number three pattern with a blocky, geometric design.

Recommendations

Reopening Ashford International is not just about more trains - it's about unlocking the potential of a region too often overlooked. For coastal communities facing persistent deprivation and reliant on a fragile tourism sector, the return of international rail would mean renewed confidence, greater investment and a stronger foothold in the national - and global - economy.

This is not a challenge that can be solved by one actor alone. The British Government, local authorities, Eurostar and potential new operators must work together to deliver a viable plan. That requires:

  1. Government signalling: The Government should demonstrate clear public commitment to the reopening of international services at Ashford International at a ministerial level.

  2. The Government should favour international operators who commit to running Ashford services when granting access rights and support. Where new operators seek to run services on HS1, the Office for Rail and Road should take into account the inclusion of Ashford as an important factor in considering government backing.[53]

  3. Reinstate border infrastructure: Prioritise essential, cost-effective upgrades of Ashford International’s border infrastructure, which we recommend be funded from the Growth Mission Fund. The Fund was designed to fast-track projects that support local job creation and “expedite local projects that are important for growth but have been forgotten”, and therefore may be regarded as the natural source of this funding.[54]

Reinstating Ashford as an international hub would send a powerful signal of commitment to good growth - turning a dormant asset into a driver of jobs, connectivity and pride. It would show that left-behind communities in the South East are not forgotten, and that the Government is serious about backing them and taking on Reform with visible, lasting change.

[53] In January 2025, the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) forced HS1 to reduce its charges for running services on the line, explicitly to encourage the introduction of new operators. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/06/regulator-forces-hs1-rail-line-to-cut-charges-in-push-to-open-up-route-to-eurostar-rivals

[54] HM Treasury, ‘Chancellor announces record investment to rebuild National Health Service’, June 2025

Appendix

Detailed methodology

Economic Forecasts

Conservative Forecast

  • New visitors: 197,000 (based on 2019 visitor numbers)

  • Visitor spend: £126.10  million

  • GVA per year: £213.56 million

  • GVA over five years: £1.068 billion

Optimistic Forecast

  • New visitors: 493,000 (based on Ashford’s peak international service)

  • Visitor spend: £315.259 million

  • GVA per year: £533.93 million

  • GVA over five years: £2.670 billion

Assumptions for passenger movements

Ashford is already a busy hub for domestic rail, with 3.51 million passenger entries/exits in 2023/24. However, current usage has significantly fallen from peak levels pre-pandemic of 4.10 million, largely due to the closure of the international line. This represents a difference of 592,034 passenger entries/exits.[55] This suggests the international line transported an estimated 296,017  people annually: one passenger taking a return journey is recorded as two “entries/exits”.

We have assumed that of the 296,017 passengers, 197,345 people were travelling from France to Ashford. This is based on an estimated ratio of passengers travelling from Europe (Paris) to the UK - as opposed to those travelling from the UK to Europe. In the December 2018 - May 2019 timetable, 3 outbound and 6 inbound services were running to Paris daily from Ashford;[56] we have used this ratio to estimate demand.

These figures represent passenger numbers immediately pre-pandemic. Our conservative forecast is based on the assumption that Ashford usage and capacity returns to these levels.

There is a strong case to be made for predicting higher usage and service levels than those immediately pre-pandemic. When Ashford International was running its peak number of services in the 1990s, it was an extremely popular service, running 30 trips daily.[57] This is 2.5x more trips per day than in 2019, so we have estimated passenger numbers could increase by the same magnitude in this scenario, reaching 493,363 .

Tourist spend increase breakdown

VisitKent says that 3.6 million international visitors visited the South East in 2022, spending £2.3 billion.[58] This is an average of £639 spent per international visitor. We have used this figure to estimate an average spend per visitor from Europe. 

GVA multiplier - conservative forecast

Visitors: 197,345 

Annual Spending: £126.10  million

Spending per sector (ratios provided by Visit Kent)[59]:

  • Accommodation: £126.10 x 9% = £11.349m 

  • Food & Drink: £126.10  x 32% = £40.352m 

  • Shopping: £126.10  x 36% = £45.396m 

  • Entertainment: £126.10  x 11% = £13.871m 

  • Travel: £126.10  x 12% = £15.132m

Over five years: this would be a total boost of £1.068 billion to the economy

Visitors: 493,363 

Total Spending: £315.259m 

Spending per sector (ratios provided by Visit Kent)[65]:

  • Accommodation: £315.259m  x 9% = £28.37m 

  • Food & Drink: £315.259m  x 32% = £100.88m 

  • Shopping: £315.259m  x 36% = £113.49m 

  • Entertainment: £315.259m  x 11% = £34.68m 

  • Travel: £315.259m x 12% = £37.83m

GVA multiplier - optimistic forecast

Over five years: this would be a total boost of £2.670 billion to the economy.

  • Our estimates only consider Type I multipliers (which account for the direct and indirect effects of spending). This does not include the induced effect. An estimate which factored in induced effect would produce a higher figure.

  • While the total spending figure is from international tourists, the ratio by sector is for all tourists (domestic and international, regardless of length of stay).

  • We assume that the number, and therefore impact, of tourists travelling out of the South East region after reaching Ashford International is minimal.

  • The GVA multipliers are based on UK-wide data.

  • The travel multiplier assumes equal amount spent on rail transport and land transport (i.e. the multiplier has been calculated as the average of the rail transport and land transport multipliers).

Assumptions and notes


Capital and Running Costs

Capital costs

We estimate at the lower end that £2 million investment could be required to adapt the station, in line with Eurostar’s expected capital costs of design and implementation at St Pancras.[71] At the higher end, this could be £3.5 million, in line with the £3.5 million given to each of the Port of Dover, Eurotunnel at Folkestone and Eurostar at St Pancras in 2024 to adapt to the EES system.[72]

Staffing costs

In a scenario with higher costs, we estimate the staffing requirements to be 18 border staff,[73] four and five additional customs officers.[74] This is if Ashford International required the same level of staffing as St Pancras, which is unlikely given visitor numbers will be lower at Ashford International than at St Pancras.

Our more realistic scenario is based on 80% of this capacity: 15 border staff and 4

customs officers. This is still cautious, given there are minimum staffing requirements regardless of passenger numbers, and Border Force has minimum service standards.

The assumptions for Border Force staff costs are:

  • Average hourly labour cost of £27.79 (adjusting for inflation the 2023 estimate)[75], with a 42-hour working week

  • Includes base pay, but also non-pay staff expenditure like pensions and NI

  • Same senior to non-senior ratio at Ashford as in the rest of Border Force

It is possible that there will be additional annual operational and maintenance costs. If this is the case we estimate them around £2 million (in line with Eurostar’s expected costs for 49 kiosks), but would expect the operator to fund them.[76]


Impact on Travel Times

The removal of Ashford as an international stop now requires passengers to travel via London St Pancras, adding a transfer and significantly increasing journey times. This extension in travel time reduces Ashford’s competitiveness as a departure point.

Brussels

2019

Ashford International to Brussels (direct): 1 hour 34 mins[77]

Return journey: 3 hours 8 mins

2025

Ashford to London St Pancras: 38 mins[78]

London St Pancras to Brussels: avg. 2 hours 20 mins[79]

Total: 2 hours 58 mins (not including time taken transferring or in security)

Return Journey: 5 hours 56 mins

Total

2019 One-Way: 1 hour 34 mins

2025 One -Way: 2 hours 58 mins

Difference: 1hr 24 mins

2019 Return: 3 hours 8 mins

2025 Return: 5 hours 56 mins

Difference: 2 hours 48 mins

Paris

2019

Ashford International to Paris (direct):1 hour 53 mins[80]

Return journey: 3 hours 46 mins


2025

Ashford to London St Pancras: 38 mins[81]

London St Pancras to Paris: avg. 2 hours 24 mins[82]

Total: 3 hours 2 mins (not including time taken transferring or in security)

Return Journey: 6 hours 4 mins

Total

2019 One-Way: 1 hour 53 mins

2025 One -Way: 3 hours 2 mins

Difference: 1hr 9 mins

2019 Return: 3 hours 46 mins

2025 Return: 6 hours 4 mins

Difference: 2 hours 18 mins

[77] Ashford International to Brussels, Eurostar Summer 2019 Timetable

[78] Ashford International to London St. Pancras, Trainline

[79] London St. Pancras to Brussels Midi/Zuid, Eurostar

[80] Ashford International to Paris, Eurostar Summer 2019 Timetable

[81] Ashford International to London St. Pancras, Trainline

[82] London St. Pancras to Paris, Eurostar

With special thanks to…

Ruby Herbert

Sachin Savur

Hattie Simpson

Adam Smith

Erika Williams

Jade Azim

Theresa Bischof

Billie Coulson

Louisa Dollimore

Arthur Fyfe-Stoica