Why the Greens Won

In Gorton and Denton, we spoke to groups of persuadable 2024 Labour voters - some considering Reform, others Green. This morning, both parties have overtaken Labour's outright majority.

So how did Labour's majority become so fragile, so fast?

The Greens won the squeeze message, and they won it early. For likely Green switchers we spoke to, stopping Reform was the overriding priority, and most felt only the Greens could deliver it. Their area had been saturated with Green campaigning from day one: posters, leaflets, and relentless canvassing. Labour's candidate, by contrast, had limited cut through. The voters we spoke to couldn’t name her. 

"For me personally, I feel the narrative is Labour's not going to get back in. So pick a side right now. It's almost as if you can't actually pick Labour. It's off the table. It's been wiped completely. It's literally Reform or the Green Party."  Female, Labour → Likely Green switcher

Once voters had concluded the Greens were the credible anti-Reform vote, Labour's late push couldn't shift them.

For many, the Green vote was less an endorsement than a message. These were voters who felt Labour had taken them for granted, and wanted to make that felt. A strong Green showing, in their minds, would force Labour to reckon with its own base rather than assume it. Polanski himself barely featured in that calculation - most couldn't tell you much about him, and some were candid that this was never really about him at all.

"At no point of my vote am I thinking this [Polanski and the Greens] is a potential to run the country."  Female, Labour → Likely Green switcher

But this wasn't purely tactical. There was a genuine, if tentative, openness to what the Greens were offering. Voters responded to a local candidate who felt relatable rather than polished. They liked what they heard on workers' rights, zero-hours contracts and the cost of living, and only some were tentative over proposals for “open borders”. 

"One of the things I put down as a priority was young workers scrapping zero-hour contracts… And I noticed the Green candidate was a plumber. My son's a plumber. So that's relatable."  Female, Labour → Likely Green switcher

And Labour gave these voters plenty to reject. Underneath everything else, what united both groups was a deep, grinding sense of economic unfairness. These are people who work, save, and play by the rules, and feel they have nothing to show for it. Energy bills, fuel, food - the basics have become a source of monthly anxiety.

"I feel penalised because I work and save. You're taxed coming and going."  Female, Labour → Likely Green switcher

"Petrol… I used to put £20 in. Now it's £60. They've done nothing better."  Female, Labour → Likely Reform switcher

Even among Green switchers,the welfare system came in for criticism as a system that had, over time, made inactivity a viable alternative to work. That felt unfair to people who were grafting and still struggling.

"The aim is to make benefits not something that is appealing… If the lifestyle becomes an alternative - and it has been for a very long time for some people - maybe it doesn't get abused quite as much… [then] working people don't feel quite as frustrated by the whole system." Male, Labour → Likely Green switcher

For likely Reform switchers, that economic frustration was channeled into their defining issue: illegal immigration. They see asylum seekers and refugees being housed and supported ahead of people who had waited years. These beliefs weren't simply imported from Farage's messaging - they were being reinforced by anecdotes from friends and family working inside the system, giving them a firsthand authority that is very hard for politicians to argue with.

These Green switchers felt that Labour, by contrast, had moved rightward to chase voters, abandoning the people who had always been its base. Starmer came across as without a strong point to stand on, sitting in the middle on every issue.

"I don't feel he's on anything. There's no strong point - whether I like it or not, I just feel he's very wishy-washy." Female, Labour → Likely Green switcher

"It's like they've chipped away at the one thing they had over the Tories, which was being a bit more honest. Now it's 'they're all as bad as each other', and you just pick the least worst." Male, Labour → Likely Reform switcher

On the NHS, where expectations were highest after 2024, the sense of disappointment was acute. People could see the pressure on services with their own eyes and didn't feel Labour was changing things fast enough to matter. For those who had worked inside the health service, it felt especially hollow.

"I've recently left the NHS due to the sheer pressure… nothing was changing."  Female, Labour → Likely Reform switcher

One attack on the Greens notably failed to land. The charge that they support drug legalisation - raised repeatedly in our Reform-leaning group - barely registered among Green switchers. Those already open to voting Green either didn't know about the policy or didn't care much. The voters it put off were never going Green in the first place.

The blocking of Andy Burnham's candidacy also left a mark. Voters saw him as someone who had delivered for Manchester, and would be best-placed to represent their area in government. There's little doubt some switchers would have stuck with Labour had he stood. But in most cases, it was a contributing factor, not the root cause. More broadly, economic frustration and a sense of drift ran much deeper than any reaction to Westminster drama across both groups. 

"I won't be voting for Labour just to punish them for not letting Andy Burnham." Female, Labour → Likely Green switcher

"The party should all be wanting to do the same thing for the area, despite who the candidate is." Female, Labour → Likely Green switcher

It would be a mistake to read this result as a permanent realignment. These voters haven't gone far, and many haven't gone happily. What came through repeatedly was not hatred of Labour but disappointment in it: a party that used to do things people could point to, and now doesn't seem to.

That memory of delivery is still an asset. Sure Start came up again and again - not as nostalgia, but as a reference point for what active Labour governance actually looked like: mothers back in education, children monitored, families supported before problems became crises.

"When we had the Sure Start centres… we were encouraging the mums to go back into education… It's why we've got so many food banks now, because when we had a Sure Start, the kids were in school, were monitored."  Female, Labour → Likely Reform switcher

The institutional roots are still there. These voters still seen Manchester as a Labour city, with a Labour council and a Labour mayor. The Greens may have won the campaign, but they haven't yet won the deep roots that Labour still has in a place like this. Even among likely Green switchers, many framed their vote as a warning shot rather than a permanent departure - and some, even while voting Green, hadn't quite given up on Labour altogether.

“I think they need more time. You just restart it again, back to the start. So give them, you know, give them more time, yeah, give them a turn, basically."  Female, Labour → Likely Green switcher

These voters haven't changed their identity, just their vote - and for many, this result feels less like a verdict than an ultimatum for now.