GGF Responds to the Spending Review

Praful Nargund, Director of the Good Growth Foundation, said: “The Good Growth Foundation has been banging the drum for an approach that puts people first - so the Chancellor‘s emphasis on everyday lives and the desire to ensure people genuinely feel Britain‘s renewal is right.

"The Chancellor herself has today acknowledged that voters are impatient for the Government’s growth ambitions to improve their lives.

"GGF research shows over 70% expect to see the benefits of growth within the next four years, while almost 50% of swing voters expect to feel them within two years. We have argued the Government must tie growth to ordinary people’s lives to reap electoral rewards. The Chancellor has made a good start by investing heavily in the NHS, tying national security to high wage jobs, as well as investing in skills and training - areas our research shows are particularly important to the public. This skills and retraining must be focused on Brits of every age and every stage of their career.

"The Government needs to ensure that every Briton, young and old, in and out of work has the access and ability to take part in upskilling, new employment and ultimately good growth.”

UK Government adopts all four Good Growth Foundation policy proposals for UK-EU reset

Praful Nargund, Director of the Good Growth Foundation, said:

“There remain challenges with implementation, but the Good Growth Foundation gave four recommendations for a common sense deal with the EU: an independent arbitration for SPS and energy cooperation; linking carbon and energy markets to bring down bills; a new defence pact; and a controlled youth mobility scheme - and we are happy to see the government has progressed across all four of these pillars. We think this is right for good growth right across the UK.”

Britons Say Trump Greater Threat than Terrorists and Want EU Deal that Brings Up to £2.6bn in Fiscal Benefit

A new Good Growth Foundation Report has found that Trump 2.0 and Putin’s war in Ukraine are pushing Britons, including Reform-leaners, towards the EU. Britons are more likely to view Donald Trump as the biggest threat to UK interest than terrorist organisations (24% and 22% respectively), second only to Russia (34%). 

The Good Growth Foundation is calling for a politically popular relationship to address the cost of living crisis, deliver security and add up to £2.6 billion in fiscal benefit.

According to the Good Growth Foundation report, 67% of Labour 2024 and 60% of Labour-Leave voters back joining forces with the EU against unpredictable partners in a forced choice against doubling down on the special relationship with America. 

Nearly three-quarters of Labour-Reform switchers want to either rejoin (35%) or have a closer relationship with the EU but not rejoin (39%), greater than Britons overall (32% want to rejoin; 34% want a closer relationship but not to rejoin). 75% of Labour-Reform switchers support “some” or “a lot” of cooperation on trade and the economy, and 73% on defence and security. 

Britons say that any deal with the EU must lower the cost of living. The public’s most frequently chosen top 3 priorities are decreasing energy prices (51%), food prices (48%), and the cost of goods and services (46%).

Amongst those who want a closer relationship, there are clear red lines for any deal with the EU, beyond accepting full EU membership:

• 38% do not want EU boats and fishing to gain greater access to UK waters (lower among Labour-Reform Switchers at just 31%, and Labour Leave voters at 30%)

• 34% want to restrict access to public services and benefits for EU citizens (33% of Labour-Reform Switchers, and 29% of Labour Leave voters)

• 31% want to prevent European Court of Justice oversight of a EU-UK deal (28% of Labour-Reform Switchers, and 24% of Labour 24 voters)

The Good Growth Foundation is proposing policy solutions that honour the public’s red lines and alleviate fears in areas like immigration - as deep concern that closer economic ties with the EU will lead to greater immigration persists. Britons and Labour’s electoral coalition think legal and illegal migration worsened since Brexit (net -23% say legal migration worsened; -42% say illegal migration worsened). Two-thirds of Britons, Labour 24, Lab- Reform, and Lab-Leave voters believe  ‘legal migration is not selective enough, and is letting too many people in’.

GGF proposals include:

• Introduce a capped Youth Mobility Scheme to generate up to £1bn in annual fiscal benefit

• Implement a capped scheme for 18–30-year-olds, with no access to public funds, visa fees, healthcare surcharges and a three-year limit, with the option to implement a cost of living surcharge. In some scenarios students could be included in the scheme and gain home tuition fee access.

  1. The scheme addresses migration concerns (two-thirds think migrants cost more than they contribute) while boosting the economy.

  2. A 100,000-cap scheme (students excluded) yields up to £1.03bn in annual fiscal benefit, boosting the CHX headroom and providing funds which we recommend are used for cost-of-living measures like the Household Support Fund.

• Unify Carbon Markets to take up to £1.6 billion off household bills

• Link the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) with the EU ETS, raising £700m–£1.6bn annually for the Treasury. Revenue can fund:

  1. Option 1: £25–£56 bill reductions for all 28.4 million households.

     1. Option 2: Expand Warm Homes Discount, increasing payments by £115–£262 for 6.1 million eligible households.

  2. Join the EU electricity market via regulatory alignment, saving £120m–£370m yearly by eliminating trading inefficiencies.

• Avoid ECJ Jurisdiction via an alternative panel

• Establish an independent arbitration panel for UK-EU disputes (like in agri-food, energy, defence), with a limited ECJ reference procedure for EU law interpretation, as in the EU-Switzerland agreement (2024).

  1. This avoids direct ECJ oversight (a red line with 31% of voters), unlike the Windsor Framework, while enabling cooperation on trade and security. It also supports veterinary agreements and carbon market alignment, reducing trade frictions. 

• Secure a formal defence and security pact and joint-procurement with the EU

• Leverage the public’s appetite for ‘good relationships with good people’ and establish a formal pact to gain access to €150bn Security Action for Europe (SAFE) fund to boost the defence industry and make military build up more affordable. 

  1. Work closely with Europe on specific capabilities to credibly counter the threat from Russia and support Ukraine. 

Praful Nargund, Good Growth Foundation Director, said:

"A closer relationship with Europe must answer the crisis of insecurity, cutting bills and offering safety amidst tumultuous global politics. Faced with the threat that Trump and Putin pose to UK interests, the public is looking again to Europe as a vital partner in protecting Britain’s security, economy and future. 

“But support remains fragile, easily lost if voters feel their core concerns are dismissed, especially on immigration. The issues that underpinned Brexit - control, sovereignty, fairness - haven’t gone away. Our proposals meet people where they are: they respect their red lines while offering a pragmatic, workable path to rebuild cooperation without reigniting division. It is a plan that can strengthen the UK’s place in the world while taking on the cost of living - with the potential to cut bills and ease pressure on families across the country.”

In the report foreword, Alastair Campbell, Author and former 10 Downing Street Director of Communications & Strategy, said:

"This report details how to navigate public attitudes, and develop messaging and policy to take that first step to a closer relationship with the European Union. Because we must get a closer relationship. Britain’s future is at stake - and this time, we have to get it right."

Jake Richards MP said:

“The Brexit paradigm is now history, and it's time for a patriotic approach that builds our country's resilience. As the Good Growth Foundation lays out, if we address the public's concerns head on, the Government can achieve a better and deeper relationship with our European partners. That means improved living standards, economic protection and a stronger, more secure Britain.”

Allie Rennison, Director SEC Newgate, former government policy adviser on business and trade said: 

“This is a report which has done the hard work of talking to different stakeholder constituencies and looked ahead to possible compromise landing zones to get an agreement that is politically tenable on all sides.”

GGF Responds to Prime Minister’s Speech

Praful Nargund, Good Growth Foundation Director, said:

"Our own research has shown that the public are keen on more support for manufacturers, an industry many feel has been left behind. The Prime Minister’s announcement today is a constructive and symbolic move to bolster the car manufacturing industry - a critical exporter for Britain.

”But the reality is that the last week has brought era-defining change - for markets, business, and in time, UK consumers. We must now accept that the US will be an unreliable partner for the near term. The Prime Minister is right to take a calm and pragmatic stance - for now, choosing to avoid reciprocal tariffs.

”And whilst the promise of further pro-growth measures is reassuring, we have to avoid navel-gazing and think more boldly, more seriously about developing stronger trading ties with others as quickly as possible. The UK has the opportunity to be a safe haven in an ocean of chaos. That means picking our friends carefully.

”For months now, the public has said it prefers a close trading relationship with the EU over one with the US. We have to get our ducks in a row ahead of the upcoming UK-EU summit to achieve meaningful change, strengthening our relationship with the UK’s biggest trading partners. In May, the Good Growth Foundation will be providing answers on how we can boost those ties, to bring more stability to our trading prospects and more money into people’s pockets."

National Insurance Holiday for Firms Hiring Those on Benefits Can Save £1.1 billion Per Year

Ahead of a rise in Employer National Insurance Contribution on Sunday (6 April), the Good Growth Foundation (GGF) is calling for a National Insurance Contribution (NICs) holiday for employers that hire people from long-term sickness or disability benefits. The fully-costed policy saves up to £13,549 per long-term sick person hired and £1.1 billion per year overall by reducing benefit spend and getting people back into work.

GGF research has found that nearly 7 in 10 people (67%) support businesses receiving tax incentives to hire people out of work due to health reasons. A NICs holiday will reduce costs for employers and provide an incentive to hire those in receipt of long-term sickness or disability benefits, reducing the welfare bill and offering opportunity to those who would like to work, but struggle to find employment.

Praful Nargund, Director of the Good Growth Foundation, said: 

“If we want a compassionate welfare system that helps people realise their potential, we need a comprehensive approach that includes employers. The risk of failure is too high - if we do not adequately support those who want to enter the workforce, more may fall into poverty. A NICs holiday for employers that hire those in receipt of long-term sickness or disability benefits would be a step in the right direction. This is a straightforward solution to a fraught political problem. Businesses need it, voters support it and it puts money back into the public purse.”

Voters support incentives for firms hiring those out of work due to health reasons.

• Polling conducted by the Good Growth Foundation found 67% of the public support businesses receiving tax incentives to hire people out of work due to health reasons - including 69% of Labour 2024 voters and 74% of Conservative-Labour swing voters.

The majority of voters say that the current welfare system fails to get people back into the workforce

• 53% think that the welfare state does a bad job of supporting people into work when they become unemployed.

• 46% think that it does a bad job specifically on helping those with disabilities and illnesses into suitable jobs.

Businesses are reporting hiring challenges, hindering economic expansion and hurting growth.

• Previously, the Good Growth Foundation’s business survey found workforce health is a growing concern for firms - with 35% of firms expressing concern about employee absence due to health issues and 78% of businesses saying it is important for the Government to improve public health to support recruitment.

Notes to Editor

Full costings and explanation of assumptions available on request.

Polling Data:

Conducted by the Good Growth Foundation.

Fieldwork: 2-6 March 2025

Sample size: 4,193

Weighting: All figures are weighted to be nationally and politically representative of all Britons, based on age, gender, education level, region, vote in 2024 and vote in 2019.

Focus Groups

Focus groups and interviews were conducted online by the Good Growth Foundation, 25 February 2025.

Scenario

• Assumes the baseline rate of long-term sick people moving into work is 16%

• Assumes an additional 33% of the deadweight (148,000) people move from long-term sick into work as a result of this policy

• Assumes 50% replace other workers

• Employer NI loss: £1061m/annum

• Employee NI gain: £66m/annum

• Employee income tax gain: £166m/annum

• Welfare payment savings: £1923m/annum

Total fiscal gain: £1.095bn/annum

Total fiscal gain if replacement rate is 0%: £1.828bn/annum

• In our model, each additional long-term sick person employed will create welfare savings between £13,549-16,468.

• “Additional” in this context refers to extra people going from long-term sick into work than the status quo/if our policy did not exist.

• The variable between the two figures is the replacement rate in our modelling i.e. the number of additional long-term sick individuals supported into work that then replace other workers. 

• This is because we assume the people that are replaced will take Universal Credit, offsetting some of the savings made from reducing benefits paid to long-term sick inactive people.

• For a 50% replacement rate (the rate we have cautiously assumed for all scenarios) the savings are £13,549 per additional long-term sick person that enters employment.

• For a 0% replacement rate (we have modelled this alongside each scenario as well) the savings are £16,468 per additional long-term sick person that enters employment.

About the Good Growth Foundation

The Good Growth Foundation (GGF) is a think tank that campaigns for a fairer economy, so growth can work for good. Following the UK’s lost decade of growth, we campaign and conduct research to advocate for economic growth that will reduce inequality and open access to opportunity for people of all backgrounds.

GGF was founded by Praful Nargund, who ran as the Labour parliamentary candidate in Islington North in the 2024 General Election and sat on Labour’s Council of Skills Advisors, where he shaped education policy. The chair of our Advisory Board, Tim Allan, is a former Downing Street advisor to Tony Blair and the founder of Portland Communications.

Contact

The GGF press office can be reached via email at contact@goodgrowthfoundation.com

GGF Responds to Devolution White Paper

Praful Nargund, Director of The Good Growth Foundation, said: “Devolution on its own will not be a game changer for growth and public perception of the Government. Through our focus groups with JL Partners we have found that devolution does not strike a chord with voters - instead, they look for  outcomes they feel directly impact their lives. The changes announced today open the door to concrete improvements in health, skills and transport, but are not an end in themselves.”

GGF Responds to Plan for Change

Praful Nargund, Director of The Good Growth Foundation, said: “Our research with J.L. Partners has found that growth in the abstract won’t sufficiently resonate with voters. So, the Prime Minister is right to recognise that people are much more concerned about improved living standards. But what do good living standards look like? People are acutely aware of the pound in their pocket. They need a tangible sense of greater financial security before they can even begin to aspire for more. And we know there is a strong preference for greater investment in the human aspect of growth - public services, young people, skills and further education. Making progress in these areas will go a long way to create the type of growth that is both popular and raises living standards.”

Removing DWP benefits could push people into crime to make ends meet, voters fear

Following the Government’s ‘Get Britain Working’ White Paper today, new polling by The Good Growth Foundation shows most Brits reject benefit cuts in favour of supporting people into work. The new think tank found 50% of the country oppose withdrawing benefits and support from those who are unemployed or economically inactive, while  49% agree that withdrawing benefits will make people more likely to resort to crime to make ends meet; just 16% disagree. 

People overwhelmingly want more skills and training to increase the number of people in work.

• 72% support providing skills training to those who are unemployed or economically inactive.

• Almost 8 in 10 (77%) support ensuring people aged 18-21 receive training, an apprenticeship or help to find work.

• Respondents still supported the measures even if they cost the Government money in the short term.

• Less than 10% opposed these pro-skills and training measures.

• Just under two-thirds (65%) believe the Government should offer training and careers guidance to those who fail to find work, rather than remove benefits. 

• Providing skills training was most likely to be listed as one of people’s top 3 priorities for the Government to to increase the number of people in work.

The public is also particularly sympathetic to those out of work due to a mental or physical health condition.

• 71% of respondents agree that if someone is out of work due to a mental health condition, they should receive adequate mental health support before they are required to look for work.

• More than two-thirds (68%) believe that if a disabled person cannot work because of their disability, the Government should provide tailored support such as workplace adjustments to enable them to get a job. 

• Half the country supports Labour’s manifesto commitment to allow those on disability welfare payments to try work without reducing their allowance, even if it means people with disabilities may receive higher benefits than non-disabled people.

• 53% believe tailored mental and physical health support, like physical therapy and counselling, should be provided to those who are unemployed. 

• Only 16% oppose such policies.

The findings show that most Brits are wary of withdrawing people’s benefits. 

• 53% agree that benefits should not be removed from those who fail to find work and have children or caring responsibilities.

• Nearly half (49%) of people think that withdrawing benefits will likely mean people resort to crime to make ends meet. 

• However, there is division over what to do if someone out of work has turned down a job offer. 31% believe they should not have their benefits withdrawn, while 38% believe that they should. 

• 32% of respondents - largely Conservative and Reform voters - support withdrawing benefits and support to push unemployed people to find employment.

Greater in-work benefits, like tax credits, are not on the cards for the Government’s White Paper. These could ensure low paid work pays more than unemployment benefits. However, 63% of the public would support such a move and the policy was the most likely to be ranked as the top priority that the Government should have to increase the number of people in work.

Praful Nargund, The Director of The Good Growth Foundation, said: “Our research shows that the British public is much more sympathetic to those on benefits than is often thought within Westminster. There is widespread support for measures which enable people to get into work, especially for improving access to skills and training. On the whole, Brits don't want to see benefits withdrawn, they want to see a system that gives people the resources they need to get back on their feet.”

Notes to Editors

Polling Data

Polling was conducted by Opinium.

Fieldwork: 20-22 November 2024

Sample size: 2,048

Weighting: Weighted to be nationally and politically representative.

About the Good Growth Foundation

The Good Growth Foundation (GGF) is a think tank that campaigns for a fairer economy, so growth can work for good. Following the UK’s lost decade of growth, we campaign and conduct research to advocate for economic growth that will reduce inequality and open access to opportunity for people of all backgrounds.

GGF was founded by Praful Nargund, who ran as the Labour parliamentary candidate in Islington North in the 2024 General Election and sat on Labour’s Council of Skills Advisors, where he shaped education policy. The chair of our Advisory Board, Tim Allan, is a former Downing Street advisor to Tony Blair and the founder of Portland Communications.

Contact

The GGF press office can be reached via email at contact@goodgrowthfoundation.co.uk.

Most Brits agree Europe more important than the US following election of Donald Trump

New polling from The Good Growth Foundation, a new think-tank that campaigns for a fairer economy, has found that Brits consistently rank Europe as more important to the UK than the US, following the election of Donald Trump as president. The comparison is particularly stark on growth and the economy, with 58% agreeing that Europe is more important in terms of trade and 56% believing Europe is more important economically. In contrast only 27% view the US as more important in terms of trade and 29% think it is more important economically.

The findings come after the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, asserted that the UK must “rebuild relations” with the EU. During his Mansion House speech, Carney stressed that Brexit has impacted trade and “weighed” on the economy. Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, also highlighted the need for the UK to “reset our relationship” with the EU.

The results indicate that only Reform voters rank the US as more important to the UK than Europe in categories including trade, economics, foreign policy, politics and diplomacy. Across the political spectrum, all other parties’ voters see Europe as more important - including Conservatives.

Where the public is more divided is on how the UK’s relationship with the US should change, following the recent election of Donald Trump as president. Many want to see a closer relationship with America in terms of economy, trade, diplomacy, and foreign policy. However, the country is roughly divided into thirds on whether the relationship should become closer, more distant or remain the same. Furthermore, 39% think the UK should have a more distant relationship with the US politically, compared to 30% who think the UK should have a closer relationship and 22% who think the relationship should remain the same. Concerns regarding potential Trump tariffs appear to be reaching the public, with 43% saying the UK should forge a closer trading relationship with the US, compared to 26% believing the country should be more distant. Women are also more likely than men to believe the UK should distance itself from the US following the election of Trump and less likely to believe the relationship between the countries should become closer.

There has been discussion of how the UK should align in the event of a potential trade war between the US and EU. Following the election of Trump, 48% of Brits agree that the country should focus more on its relationship with the EU; only 18% believe we should focus on our relationship with the US. Yet, most Brits (57%) believe that it is in the UK’s best interests for our Government to be close with the US Government and 49% believe the Labour Government should set their own politics aside to pursue a strong working relationship with the Trump administration.

Praful Nargund, The Director of The Good Growth Foundation, said: “Our research shows that politicians of all stripes should remember post-Brexit Britain is not anti-Europe.The public recognises the importance of maintaining a solid relationship with the US, but dislikes Donald Trump and can see the UK’s future is dependent on our relationship with Europe. Whether it be on trade, politics, economics or diplomacy - Europe is largely recognised as Britain’s most important ally.”

Notes to Editors

Polling Data

Polling was gathered by JL Partners.

Fieldwork: 13th to 14th November 2024

Sample size: 2,024 GB Adults

Sampling mode: Online panel sample

Quotas and weights: Quota-ed and weighted to be representative of Great Britain on age, gender, region, education, 2024 general election vote, ethnicity and political attention.

About the Good Growth Foundation

The Good Growth Foundation (GGF) is a think tank that campaigns for a fairer economy, so growth can work for good. Following the UK’s lost decade of growth, we campaign and conduct research to advocate for economic growth that will reduce inequality and open access to opportunity for people of all backgrounds.

GGF was founded by Praful Nargund, who ran as the Labour parliamentary candidate in Islington North in the 2024 General Election and sat on Labour’s Council of Skills Advisors, where he shaped education policy. The chair of our Advisory Board, Tim Allan, is a former Downing Street advisor to Tony Blair and the founder of Portland Communications.

Contact

GGF’s press office can be reached via email at contact@goodgrowthfoundation.co.uk.

Half of UK Agrees Labour Must Make ‘Difficult Decisions’ on Public Finances

According to new polling, half of the British public agrees with the Labour Government that “difficult decisions” must be taken to control public spending - including means-testing the winter fuel allowance. The polling, conducted for the Good Growth Foundation, has found that 50% of the public think that the Government needs to take tough decisions to control public spending, rising to 67% of Labour voters.

The Good Growth Foundation, a not-for-profit organisation that campaigns for a fairer economy, found only 25% disagree with the Government’s assessment  that it must make difficult decisions. A significant majority of the public, 67%, believe the current state of the country’s finances is either “somewhat bad” or “very bad”, and voters largely blame the previous Conservative Government. When asked who they blame most for the current state of public finances, 44% of voters named the Conservatives, increasing to 66% of Labour voters in the 2024 General Election. Overall, 31% blame Labour.

The findings indicate that the public may be more understanding of Labour’s approach to public finances than previously thought. Increasing borrowing to invest in infrastructure such as new hospitals, roads and rail networks is also popular, with 48% of the population in support.

Ahead of the Budget, the public is open to the idea of increasing taxes on businesses. Over a third support increasing taxes on businesses, even if it would hurt growth, while 30% oppose the idea and 29% are in the middle. Similarly, the case still needs to be made to convince people that borrowing to invest in green energy is worth it to the public purse. Just over a third believe the Government should borrow to invest in green energy, while just under a third disagrees and 27% neither agrees or disagrees.

The Director of The Good Growth Foundation, Praful Nargund, said: “Despite the difficult start to Government, our research indicates that voters largely remain signed up to Labour’s approach to managing the public finances. Their message is clearly breaking through, particularly with Labour voters. Across the board people are supportive or open minded to giving the Government the space needed to make difficult decisions.

“There is particularly strong support for borrowing to invest in infrastructure, but the public remains to be convinced on borrowing to invest in clean energy. Nevertheless, the majority of the public is supportive or open-minded to the idea.”

Notes to Editors

Polling Data

Polling was gathered by JL Partners.

Fieldwork: 11th to 13th October 2024

Sample size: 2,000 GB Adults

Sampling mode: Online panel sample

Quotas and weights: Quota-ed and weighted to be representative of Great Britain on age, gender, region, education, 2024 general election vote, ethnicity and political attention.

About the Good Growth Foundation

The Good Growth Foundation (GGF) is a think tank that campaigns for a fairer economy, so growth can work for good. Following the UK’s lost decade of growth, we campaign and conduct research to advocate for economic growth that will reduce inequality and open access to opportunity for people of all backgrounds.

GGF was founded by Praful Nargund, who ran as the Labour parliamentary candidate in Islington North in the 2024 General Election and sat on Labour’s Council of Skills Advisors, where he shaped education policy. The chair of our Advisory Board, Tim Allan, is a former Downing Street advisor to Tony Blair and the founder of Portland Communications.

Contact

GGF’s press office can be reached via email at contact@goodgrowthfoundation.com.